The goal of this project was to gain knowledge on the relationship between demand for electricity and outdoor temperature, especially in situations with prolonged very cold temperatures.
In order to answer the questions at hand, great importance has been put on creating temperature dependent, typical consumption profiles for a number of customer categories. All analyses are based on reality, as measured hourly average loads and 24 hour averages of temperatures for different customer categories or for the country as a whole have been used.
The choice of objects with fully reliable measurements of hourly loads was, in some cases, more limited and in other cases a lot more extensive than our initial minimum requirements.
Based on the performed analyses, the authors draw the following conclusions:
- The country’s total consumption pattern has changed so that the system’s maximum load can occur during morning hours (7-9 AM), but also during afternoon hours (4-6 PM). We have previously anticipated (and registered) peak loads in the morning hours only (8-9 AM).
- Electricity-heated customer groups’ morning and evening peaks coincide with the system’s total peak load hours. This is something new, since the system earlier had a morning peak and domestic customers showed a notable evening peak.
- The system’s sensitivity to temperature lacks a significant saturation point. On the contrary, there is a tendency for decreasing temperature sensitivity at falling temperatures.
- Heat pumps seem to have an increasing sensitivity to temperature at falling outdoor temperatures. It is a lot less though, then initially feared.
- Electricity heating and air-to-air heat pumps seem to have a low sensitivity to temperatures in cases where temperatures vary a lot during the day.
- Small electricity heated domestic homes have a distinct effect on the country’s peak load. If a so-called 20th year winter should occur, those domestic homes will increase the country’s peak load with approximately 1000 MW compared to a normal winter.
No obvious electricity heating has been identified in blocks of flats heated by district heating.